Ben Churchman, Principal, Client Relations
Recent market data from the Property Council of Australia shows Australia’s national office vacancy rate rose to 15.9% over the six months to January 2026. On the surface, that suggests businesses still have plenty of choice. In reality, the picture is more complex. Much of the available space is concentrated in older or lower-grade buildings, while demand continues to focus on prime and premium offices. At the same time, new office supply over the next three to five years is expected to sit well below historical averages.
For businesses with leases expiring from 2028 to 2031, this creates a clear risk. If they wait until the final year of their lease to start planning, they may face fewer quality options, lower incentives, higher rents and less leverage with landlords.
When should a company start planning an office move?
A company should ideally start planning an office move 24 to 36 months before lease expiry*. This gives the business time to assess its current workplace, understand future space requirements, explore the market, test relocation scenarios and negotiate from a stronger position.
For leases expiring between 2028 and 2031, those businesses should begin strategy and feasibility work now or in the next 12 to 24 months.
Starting early does not mean committing immediately. It means understanding your options before market conditions reduce them.
Why are 2028–2031 lease expiries high risk?
Leases expiring from 2028 to 2031 are entering a high-risk zone because the balance of power in the office market is likely to shift. Businesses that wait too long may face:
- Limited availability of prime office space
- A landlord-led market
- Much lower landlord incentives
- Higher rents
- Increased fit-out and construction costs
- Less negotiating power
- More competition for the best floors in buildings
- Pressure to renew in an underperforming workplace
By the time many businesses enter the market, the best options may already be committed.
Why can headline office vacancy rates be misleading?
Headline vacancy rates can be misleading because they do not show the quality, location or suitability of available space. There may appear to be plenty of office space available, but not enough of the right office space.
Businesses are increasingly seeking offices that help attract talent, support collaboration, strengthen culture and make the commute worthwhile. That demand is concentrated in higher-quality buildings with strong amenity, sustainability credentials, transport access and employee experience.
Once the best buildings fill, there is often no direct substitute.
Why are businesses choosing higher-quality office space?
Businesses are choosing higher-quality office space because the role of the office has changed. The office now needs to do more than provide desks. It needs to help attract and retain talent, support collaboration, strengthen culture and make the commute worthwhile.
Across major markets, demand is concentrated in premium and A-grade buildings because these spaces are more likely to offer:
- Better amenity
- Stronger sustainability credentials
- Better transport access
- Higher-quality building services
- Better employee experience
- More flexible and efficient floorplates
- A stronger client and brand experience
Once the best buildings fill, there is often no direct substitute. A lower-grade building may be available, but it may not support the same business objectives.
Are office incentives still available?
Office incentives are still available in many markets, but they may not remain at current levels. For businesses considering a move, this creates a strategic window.
Strong incentives can help offset fit-out costs and support investment in a workplace that better supports employees, clients and business performance.
As the market tightens, incentives are likely to come under pressure. Businesses that act earlier may be better placed to secure stronger terms than those that wait until competition for quality space increases.
Should a company move before its lease expires?
In some cases, moving before lease expiry can be a smart commercial decision. This may be worth exploring if the business is in an underperforming office, has a break option, is carrying too much space, needs a better-quality workplace or wants to use current market incentives before they reduce.
Moving early is not right for every business. It should be tested through a clear strategy and feasibility process that considers lease obligations, incentives, relocation costs, fit-out costs, business disruption and long-term value.
For some organisations, an early move can be a deliberate strategy to secure better space before the market tightens.
What are smart tenants doing now?
Smart tenants are planning early and not rushing into any decisions. The businesses getting the best outcomes are:
- Starting workplace strategy and feasibility work 24 to 36 months ahead of lease expiry
- Reviewing whether their current office supports future business needs
- Testing early relocation and break-lease scenarios
- Understanding how much space they actually need
- Targeting high-quality buildings with long-term relevance
- Using incentives strategically to support fit-out investment
- Treating the workplace as a strategic asset, not just a cost line
This approach gives leaders more control over timing, cost, negotiation and workplace outcomes.
What is the bottom line for leases expiring from 2028 to 2031?
Businesses with leases expiring from 2028 to 2031 should start planning earlier than they may expect.
A new wave of high-quality office supply is entering the market, but the window to secure the best space may be short. Future supply is expected to be thinner, demand is focused on prime buildings and incentives are unlikely to stay elevated indefinitely.
For businesses with upcoming lease expiries, now is the time to understand the market, test options and make decisions before choice and leverage reduce.
Moving office is not just a property decision. It is an opportunity to create a workplace that supports people, performance and long-term business value.
*This represents an ideal scenario. If you are closer to your lease expiry, we can advise the best options available to you.